Afleet Express holds off Fly Down to win Travers

Horseracing Betting Lines

08/28/2010 - Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Afleet Express, ridden by Javier Castellano, edged a late running Fly Down to capture Saturday's $1 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. The time for the 1 1/4-miles was 2:03.28 on a fast track.

The Travers, also known as the Mid-Summer Derby, had a field of 11 evenly matched three-year-olds for the 1 1/4-miles. Haskell runner-up Trappe Shot went off as the 7-2 favorite and Jim Dandy winner A Little Warm was second at 9-2.

Setting the pace was Jim Dandy runner-up Miner's Reserve followed by First Dude, A Little Warm and Trappe Shot. Entering the far turn Miner's Reserve and jockey David Cohen continued on the lead with First Dude, second in the Preakness, still pressing the pace.

Around the final turn Afleet Express assumed the lead along the rail as Belmont Stakes runner-up Fly Down and rider Jose Lezcano rallied on the outside.

Afleet Express took the lead coming out of the turn and into the stretch. Fly Down came charging down the middle of the track and drew even with the leader with a furlong to run.

The two battled down the stretch right to the wire. The two colts hit the wire together in what appeared to be a dead-heat. Afleet Express, one of three Afleet Alex sons in the Travers, nosed out Fly Down with a bob of the head.

First Dude finished third with Afleet Again fourth. Completing the order finish was A Little Warm, Friend Or Foe, Miner's Reserve, Ice Box, Trappe Shot, Super Saver and Admiral Alex. Afleet Again and Admiral Alex were also sired by 2005 champion three-year-old colt Afleet Alex.

Afleet Express returned $16.00, $7.80 and $4.90. Fly Down paid $6.90 and $5.20, and First Dude paid $4.60 to show.

Trained by Jimmy Jerkens, Afleet Express is owned by Gainesway Stable and Martin Cherry. The colt earned $600,000 with the win to bring his career earnings to $835,140.

"There are people who go and run in the Derby just to run in the Derby," Jerkens said this week, "even though they know they're going to get beat 100 lengths. I don't see what you get out of that. To be in here in a race that has gotten as prestigious as this has and to have a horse with a good chance is pretty exciting."

In his seven-race career, Afleet Express has won four times with a second and a third. He was third in Saratoga's Jim Dandy Stakes and won the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park in June. Castellano has been aboard Afleet Express the last four races.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.