07/02/2006 - Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Detroit committed four errors in a game for the first time since July 21, 2005, three of which helped the Pirates blow a tie game open with a seven-run seventh frame in a 9-2 victory at PNC Park.
Jose Bautista ended 3-for-5 with a run batted in and run scored, Sean Casey finished 3-for-4 with a pair of runs scored and an RBI and both Jeromy Burnitz and Ronny Paulino knocked in two runs for the Pirates, who won for the second time in three games after a 13-game losing streak.
Matt Capps (3-1) picked up the victory in the middle contest of the three-game interleague set, tossing two scoreless frames while allowing two hits with one strikeout. Capps replaced Tom Gorzelanny, the prized pitching prospect who gave up two runs on six hits with three walks and six strikeouts in five frames.
Marcus Thames and Ivan Rodriguez had two hits apiece for the Tigers, who saw a seven-game winning streak come to an end. Jason Grilli (0-1) was saddled with the loss after surrendering two runs -- one earned -- on three hits with a pair of strikeouts in 1 1/3 innings.
Jeremy Bonderman started for Detroit and gave up two runs on seven hits with one walk and five strikeouts in five innings.
Pittsburgh put up a crooked number in the seventh frame to blow the game wide open. Nate McLouth singled to center then Bautista singled to left to begin the seven-run seventh. After Jack Wilson struck out, Casey lined a run-scoring single to center.
Jason Bay then hit a sharp groundball to third, but Brandon Inge's throw home handcuffed Rodriguez, allowing Bautista to score without the Tigers recording an out. Freddy Sanchez then reached on an error by Chris Shelton to load the bases for Burnitz, who reached on Placido Polanco's error as Casey and Bay crossed the plate.
The Tigers' fielding problems came back to bite them, as Jose Castillo drilled a double into the gap in right-center field, allowing Sanchez to score for a 7-2 lead.
Ronny Paulino followed with a two-run single to left, giving Pittsburgh a 9-2 edge, capping the scoring.
Detroit took an early lead in the top of the second frame. Carlos Guillen worked a full count then walked, Thames singled to left and Shelton drove in the shortstop with a base hit off the end of the bat into right field.
The Pirates tied the game in the home half of the third as Paulino singled and moved up to second on Gorzelanny's sacrifice bunt. The fleet-footed catcher then sprinted around third on Bautista's single and slid just in front of Rodriguez's tag to square the contest at 1-1.
Pittsburgh claimed a 2-1 advantage in the bottom of fourth when Burnitz knocked in Casey with a single to center.
Singles by Polanco and Magglio Ordonez put runners on the corners with one out in the top of the fifth, and the Tigers tied the game on Guillen's sacrifice fly to left field.
Game Notes
Sanchez's 13-game hitting streak came to an end...Detroit is 14-3 in interleague play while the Pirates are 2-11 versus the American League...Zach Miner gets the ball for Detroit on Sunday against Ian Snell for the Pirates.
<< Sorenstam and Hurst on top at U.S. Women's Open
Newport, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Annika Sorenstam, a two-time winner of this
event, and Pat Hurst both posted rounds of even-par 71 on Saturday and are
tied for the lead after two rounds of the U.S. Women's Open. The pair is
knotted
<< Sloan Foundation Announces Benton, Illinois Native as Honorary Chair
Former NBA player and head coach, Doug Collins, has been named as the honorary chairperson for the second annual Bobbye and Jerry Sloan Hand-in-Hand Twilight Run and Friendship Walk. Collins is a native of Benton, Illinois, a neighboring city to Slo
<< PGA TOUR Superstore to Open Fourth Atlanta-Area Location in Buckhead, Ga.
Popularity of PGA TOUR Superstore propels expansion.
<< Full Tilt Poker Bonus Code
A brand new Full Tilt Poker Bonus Code “600SPOT” has been released by CompatiblePoker in conjunction with Full Tilt Poker to get new bonus hunters a $600 bonus.
Teahen's extra inning blast propels Royals over Cards >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark Teahen smacked a home run in the 11th
inning to lead Kansas City to an 8-7 win over St. Louis in the middle contest
of a three-game set at Busch Stadium.
Teahen knocked in four runs while David DeJ
Flyers ink Baumgartner, Jonsson >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers announced the
signings of defenseman Nolan Baumgartner and defenseman Lars Jonsson on
Saturday.
Baumgartner agreed to terms on a two-year contract, while Jonsson inked a
Jays target sweep of Phils >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A.J. Burnett hopes to make it two straight wins this
afternoon when the Toronto Blue Jays try and complete a three-game sweep of
the Philadelphia Phillies at the Rogers Centre.
Burnett returned from the disabled list in im
Webb, Zito collide in Oakland >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Oakland Athletics will
clash this afternoon in the rubber match of a three-game set at the Oakland
Coliseum.
Taking the ball this afternoon for the Diamondbacks will be the team's ace
Bra
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting